Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
